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a malcontent rant 01.16.2010



A 30 Year Cycle of Massive Job Losses?


By tha malcontent
ap/afp Editor in Chief
January 16... 9:15 AM MST

(ap) - A 30 Year Cycle of Massive Job Losses?

Here's the Data:

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

From a Similar Economic Situation in my Lifetime...

Unemployment under Carter started an Upward Trend in about mid-1979. It went from about 6% to 7.5% by the time he Left Office.

From there, under Reagan it Continued as the Recession came into Full Force.

Unemployment Peaked at the End of 1982 at almost 11%.

It took 2 Years to come down 3% and another 4 Years to come down another 2%.

From it's Beginning to its End, the Carter/Reagan Misery/Recession's Unemployment Issues Lasted from Mid-1979 to almost 1989.

It took 5 Years for Unemployment to Improve by 5% once it Finally Turned.

Using that Similar Recession/Slowdown, we are Looking at Probably 2014 or 2015 before we see 5% again� If we do.

Is it a little Odd that it's Apparently Repeated itself in a 30 Year Cycle?...

30 Years Prior to that, from 1948 to 1949 Unemployment More than Doubled from 3.4% to almost 8%...

Interesting... Probably Meaningless because it didn't Sustain... But Interesting all the same.

What I do see as a Possibility is a Generational Shift.

The WWII Generation started Slowing Down Economically at about the same Time in the Mid to Late 70's as the Boomers have in the Mid to Late 2000's.

Difference?... The Girth of the Boom Generations Size by Comparison.

It will be Interesting to see what the Affect of the Largest Generation's Obsessive Spending on Self coming to an End does to the Economy Long-term and if the New "Green/Conserve" Mentality can Boost this Economy once again.

If you can, I would Invest in Retirement Facilities and Long-term Care!

Nothing Personal Against the Boomers... Just Business!




tha malcontent



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